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About

Abnormal Returns etc.

Tadas Viskanta is the founder and editor of the Abnormal Returns blog which has been "forecast-free" since 2005.

abnormalreturns 12:50 PM Oct 07, 2015 at 12:50 PM

Wednesday links: addicted to liquidity

This post originally appeared at Abnormal Returns. Sign-up for our daily e-mail newsletter to stay up-to-date with all our posts.

Book review: Wall Street Wars: The Epic Battles with Washington That Created the Modern Financial System by Richard E. Farley is a “fine work of popular financial history.”  (CFA Institute)

Quote of the day: “We have become addicted to market liquidity. But it is too fragile and perverse in its effects on incentives to be viewed as a universal feature of our capital markets.” (Martin Wolf)

Chart of the day:

Why the pullback in the biotechs has been so brutal.(thereformedbroker.com)

Selected links:

This rally is being led by cyclical stocks. (crossingwallstreet.com)

Good luck trying to predict future profit margins. (pragcap.com)

A great list of stuff you shouldn’t care about. (awealthofcommonsense.com)

You will never fully get rid of pricing issues with mutual funds. (alephblog.com)

On the importance of acquiring investment discipline by any means possible. (abnormalreturns.com)

What cities Americans are moving to and leaving. (newgeography.com)

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abnormalreturns 12:45 PM Oct 06, 2015 at 12:45 PM

Tuesday links: meritorious mentors

This post originally appeared at Abnormal Returns. Sign-up for our daily e-mail newsletter to stay up-to-date with all our posts.

Book review: Invest with the Fed: Maximizing Portfolio Performance by Following Federal Reserve Policy by Robert R. Johnson, Gerald R. Jensen and Luis Garcia-Feijóo “opens doors to new ideas.” (Enterprising Investor)

Quote of the day: “The dead have their drawbacks. They make for dull company, and when the dishes need washing, they are never around. As investment mentors, however, they have their merits.” (John Rekenthaler)

Chart of the day:

The case for a bottom in energy stocks is getting stronger.  (Barron’s)

Selected links:

The $VIX is once again below 20. (crossingwallstreet.com)

Stocks are set to enter the best six-month period of the year. (blogs.wsj.com)

Twitter ($TWTR) is nothing if not entertaining. (bloombergview.com)

Activist investors are making increasingly bigger bets. (nytimes.com)

Why DraftKings and FanDuel should merge. (fortune.com)

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abnormalreturns 1:13 PM Oct 05, 2015 at 1:13 PM

Monday links: things that matter

This post originally appeared at Abnormal Returns. Sign-up for our daily e-mail newsletter to stay up-to-date with all our posts.

Book review: The Devil’s Financial Dictionary by Jason Zweig will help you “shed costly misconceptions and acquire wisdom..” (Barron’s)

Quote of the day: "(M)ost people think trading is about having great ideas and great reasons for those ideas. I’d argue that everything else–everything that people talk about so little–those are the things that really matter.“ (Adam Grimes)

Chart of the day:

US economic surprises are surprisingly bad.  (humblestudentofthemarkets.blogspot.com)

Selected links:

Big one-day rallies and price swings are characteristic of downtrends, not bull markets. (thereformedbroker.com)

What kind of returns can you expect from a 60/40 portfolio? (awealthofcommonsense.com)

High frequency traders as a force for good. (bankers-anonymous.com)

The best performing ETFs of the year. (etf.com)

Entry level workers are becoming a tight commodity. (csen.tumblr.com)

How to have a better Monday. (time.com)

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abnormalreturns 9:05 AM Oct 04, 2015 at 9:05 AM

Sunday links: prospective down-rounds

This post originally appeared at Abnormal Returns. Sign-up for our daily e-mail newsletter to stay up-to-date with all our posts.

Book review: Economics Rules: The Rights and Wrongs of the Dismal Science by Dani Rodrik is “terrific.” (The Enlighted Economist)

Quote of the day: "The market dynamic changed. Now all of a sudden a lot of late-stage buyers are looking at prospective down-rounds. This is going to impact their and our future crossover strategy…“  (Jeremy Abelson)

Chart of the day:

image

Wal-Mart ($WMT) stock has had a bad year.(jlfmi.tumblr.com)

Selected links:

Bearish sentiment is spreading. (disciplinedinvesting.blogspot.com)

Is gold a one-hit wonder? (sharpereturns.ca)

Why Jack Dorsey is ready to fix Twitter ($TWTR). (recode.net)

The signs of a global slowdown are clear. (blogs.ft.com)

Why is making friends as an adult so difficult? (inverse.com)

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abnormalreturns 7:05 AM Oct 03, 2015 at 7:05 AM

Saturday links: under the hood

This post originally appeared at Abnormal Returns. Sign-up for our daily e-mail newsletter to stay up-to-date with all our posts.

Book review: Gavin Weightman’s Eureka: How Inventions Happen is an “enjoyable” read. (Reading the Markets)

Quote of the day: “But, in the long run, Volkswagen’s efforts to make diesel a mainstream technology in the United States could end up making it an outcast technology everywhere else—and that may be, ironically, Martin Winterkorn’s greatest legacy.”  (James Surowiecki)

Selected links:

What it’s like to drive in a Google ($GOOG) self-driving car. (washingtonpost.com)

The battle for your phone’s home screen is over. (qz.com)

Why its harder to stay skinny now than in the 1980s. (theatlantic.com)

Why it took McDonalds ($MCD) a long time to figure out all-day-breakfast. (eater.com)

There is a huge demand for stand up comedy specials. (bloomberg.com)

Why are little kids in Japan so independent? (citylab.com)

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abnormalreturns 12:47 PM Oct 02, 2015 at 12:47 PM

Friday links: divided minds

This post originally appeared at Abnormal Returns. Sign-up for our daily e-mail newsletter to stay up-to-date with all of our posts.

Book notes: Systematic Trading: A Unique New Method for Designing Trading and Investing Systems by Robert Carver is “rational and practical.”  (CXO Advisory Group)

Quote of the day: “Half of the real problem of exhaustion comes from distraction. The problem is not being too tired. The problem is having a divided mind.” (James Walpole)

Chart of the day:

Market timers are getting bearish. (@RyanDetrick)

Selected links:

S&P 500 dividends have risen for the past 22 quarters. (crossingwallstreet.com)

Why bonds are a useful diversifier. (obliviousinvestor.com)

Charley Ellis points out the many problems with current 401(k) plans. (news.morningstar.com)

Amazon ($AMZN) will no longer sell Apple ($AAPL) or Google ($GOOG) streaming TV devices. (qz.com)

What books Abnormal Returns readers purchased in September 2015. (abnormalreturns.com)

On feeling like a failure. (sethgodin.typepad.com)

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abnormalreturns 12:58 PM Oct 01, 2015 at 12:58 PM

Thursday links: taken to extremes

This post originally appeared at Abnormal Returns. Sign-up for our daily e-mail newsletter to stay up-to-date with all of our posts.

Book review:  DIY Financial Advisor: A Simple Solution to Build and Protect Your Wealth by Wes Gray, Jack Vogel and David Foulke is “a good book for people who are motivated to do better with their investments.”  (Aleph Blog)

Quote of the day: “Every investment cycle is defined by the collective desire to avoid the mistakes of the last one. Taken to extremes, that often becomes the catalyst for the next crisis.” (Vadim Zlotnik)

Chart of the day:

There were few places to hide in Q3. (ftalphaville.ft.com)

Selected links:

This correction could drag on for awhile longer. (priceactionlab.com)

Value has underperformed for eight years. (crossingwallstreet.com)

Facebook ($FB) is still underrated. (stratechery.com)

Your hedge fund blow-up of the week. (nytimes.com)

What investment term will soon become antiquated? (abnormalreturns.com)

Why your to-do-list is killing your productivity. (bloomberg.com)

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abnormalreturns 8:02 AM Oct 01, 2015 at 8:02 AM

What investment term will we soon be antiquated?

This post originally appeared at Abnormal Returns. You can stay up-to-date with all of our posts by signing up for our daily e-mail newsletter.

I thought this tweet by Benedict Evans of Andreessen Horowitz was particularly insightful:

Pretty soon saying ‘touch’ screen, 'mobile’ internet or 'self-driving’ cars will be like saying 'colour’ TV. What was new becomes a given. - @BenedictEvans

This idea was reflected also in a short post by Dan Frommer at Quartz who asks ‘why are we still calling them phones’ when they are used primarily as hand-held computers. The chart below shows the growing gap between data use and voice:

Source: Quartz

Which begs the question: what investment (or finance) term will we soon think of as antiquated? I can think of a couple of examples off the top of my head.

  • Robo-advisor: there is an inordinate amount of press about robo-advisors, including on this site. My guess is that the term will fall by the wayside as automated portfolio management solutions, by whatever name, become the dominate way of managing money.
  • Active vs. passive: terms like smart beta are already passé as ‘smart beta 2.0‘ catches a bid. However the active vs. passive distinction has already lost its relevance. Cullen Roche at Pragmatic Capitalism is all over this false premise.
  • Commission: this one is a bit more speculative. The success of Robinhood shows there is a huge demand for $0 commission stock trades. It seems that over time, the proper application of technology should bring down the cost of commissions.

It may be a cliché to say that the world is changing at an increasingly accelerating rate, but it is. Along the way that means certain terms will lose their caché. Oh well, time moves on whether we like it or not.

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abnormalreturns 12:03 PM Sep 29, 2015 at 12:03 PM

Tuesday links: inside the law

This post originally appeared at Abnormal Returns. Sign-up for our daily e-mail newsletter to stay up-to-date with all of our posts.

Book notes: America’s Bank: The Epic Struggle to Create the Federal Reserve by Roger Lowenstein is a “gripping tale.”  (Fortune)

Quote of the day: “The biggest problem for fund shareholders is not what is done outside the law, but rather within it. The 12b-1 fee should not have been invented, nor should it continue to exist. Its abolition would immediately and dramatically lower fund expense ratios.” (John Rekenthaler)

Chart of the day:

We are back to August-low levels. (crossingwallstreet.com)

Selected links:

Don’t mess around with long-term bonds. (awealthofcommonsense.com)

Junk bond demand has cooled dramatically. (wsj.com)

Amazon ($AMZN) is getting into the flexible, local delivery business. (businessinsider.com)

Why does Wall Street want higher interest rates? (bloombergview.com)

Just how much better are today’s phone cameras? (snapsnapsnap.photos)

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abnormalreturns 12:36 PM Sep 28, 2015 at 12:36 PM

Monday links: time in the market

This post originally appeared at Abnormal Returns. Be sure to sign-up for our daily e-mail newsletter to stay up-to-date with all of our posts.

Book review: Unfinished Business: Women Men Work Family by Anne-Marie Slaughter views gender inequality through then lens of our uniquely American work culture. (LA Times)

Quote of the day: “As is often the case with diversification, it’s not timing the market that counts.  It’s time in the market.  So, while cash looks particularly smart today the historical figures say that cash won’t be king for long.” (Cullen Roche)

Chart of the day:

Precious metals are pushing up against their downtrend lines (shortsideoflong.com)

Selected links:

Only a couple of asset classes have positive year-over-year total returns. (capitalspectator.com)

There are every few natural hedges to stock market volatility. (maliceforall.com)

Alcoa ($AA) is splitting into two companies: one commodity, one engineered products. (nytimes.com)

Both Ben Bernanke and Paul Volcker have endorsed Roger Lowenstein’s forthcoming “America’s Bank: The Epic Struggle to Create the Federal Reserve.” (Amazon)

“Speed is a feature.” (signalvnoise.com)

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